As of mid-August, because the downstream market is in the traditional off-season, the production and sales of the downstream gauze market have not improved. Spinning companies' operating rates, profits, and orders have declined to varying degrees, and textile companies' cotton yarn inventory continues to increase. Then, the traditional peak season of "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" is coming soon, can downstream demand increase as planned?

"Shandong cotton spinning enterprises have shown a continuous downward trend in the number of order scheduling days. Market orders are mostly loose orders and small orders. Recently, cotton yarn orders are still not good. Enterprises are actively receiving orders, but subsequent orders have not been increased. Some companies reported that foreign trade orders have slowly increased. However, the sustainability of orders is not good, and the capacity is insufficient. In addition, there are still uncertainties in Sino-US trade relations, and companies are cautious in receiving orders. The later market focuses on the return of foreign trade orders and the recovery of domestic demand, as well as the dynamics of Sino-US trade relations." Said Chen Caijuan, a cotton yarn researcher at Creative Information.

According to statistics, as of August 21, the comprehensive operating rate of the spinning industry was 58.43%. The overall operating rate of Shandong and Hebei was lower than the industry average, 55% and 39% respectively. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Henan was higher than the previous one. The cycle increased by 1 percentage point in a narrow range, 69% and 49% respectively. The operating rates of Fujian, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Hebei remained the same as the previous cycle, 68%, 65%, 55%, and 39% respectively.

According to media surveys of several downstream cotton spinning mills with 20,000-100,000 spindles, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other coastal areas have shown a slight and gradual increase in the consumption demand for high-end yarns due to the rebound in foreign trade orders compared with May and June. The ability of enterprises to digest and accept high-grade lint such as "Double 28 and Double 29" has improved significantly. In Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Hubei and other large textile provinces, small spinning mills and cloth mills have become more and more prominent due to high temperature and lack of processing orders. However, it is in sharp contrast to the gradual withdrawal of small factories. Expanding.

　　 Jiangsu, Shandong and other yarn mills reflect that cotton yarn products continue to decline. In order not to stop production, ensure employment, and not lay off employees, yarn mills can only reduce yarn count and cotton mix. A large spinning company in Ningbo stated that, except for special yarns, organic cotton yarns and new fiber yarns, almost all of them are at a loss when spinning 50S and above combed yarns and high-profile carded yarns. "High-count yarn orders, or product downgrades, switch to low-count yarn products to reduce the risk of difficulty in payment.

The new cotton will be launched soon, and the status of cotton is still embarrassing. The Sino-US trade frictions and the boycott of Xinjiang cotton have had a negative effect on domestic cotton demand, especially Xinjiang cotton, and domestic cotton consumption is even more serious. The big driving force comes from the "internal circulation", and for China's huge domestic production and processing capacity, textile competition in the country will be more intense. The lack of consumption capacity will lead to the overcapacity, and the demand stimulated by our internal circulation may hardly drive The textile market is fully recovered. However, the current orders have slightly recovered. Although they are not as good as before the epidemic, the worst has passed. Therefore, although the demand will not change much, a slight improvement is still expected. The overall supply is sufficient, and the demand will not be very strong. , The cotton market is destined to be probable.

　　 Is there a possibility of a big drop in cotton? At present, this situation is unlikely to happen. From the perspective of the overall price level of agricultural products, many agricultural products have gone out of the low price range, while the price of cotton is still relatively low, which is an agricultural product with a low valuation. The price comparison advantage is not obvious. In the long-term period, the supply will gradually decrease while the demand will increase slightly. This is a potential bullish, which can constitute a certain amount of support, but it has not yet constituted an upward momentum. From the current Zheng Cotton 2001 contract price, compared with the current spinning profit, the absolute price of cotton is not too low, and the spinning profit is small or even at a loss.

　　 In fact, the most important factor affecting demand is the epidemic and Sino-US relations. Global epidemic control has not been as smooth as expected. Failure to effectively control the global epidemic will lengthen the recovery of cotton consumption. The Sino-US trade friction has accelerated the pace of industrial transfer to Southeast Asia. If Sino-US relations deteriorate, production capacity will continue to shift, leading to a decline in domestic cotton consumption.

　　 It is worth noting that the central bank has recently increased its net investment again. In the past six months, the world's major economies have increased their currency in different ways, and inflationary pressure has increased in the later period. From a fundamental point of view, new flowers will be launched around September, the price of seed cotton may open lower and higher, and there will be more speculation due to factors such as the US cotton hurricane. The textile demand will slowly improve and the expectation remains unchanged. It is expected that the cotton yarn market may bottom out in the later period Rebound. Pay close attention to the development of domestic and international epidemics and the progress of Sino-US trade relations.