After entering October, the entire textile market seemed to be stepped on the accelerator, and the "hurricane" mode was opened. Domestic and foreign trade orders continued to flow, making textile people feel the long-lost peak season.

What is the specific performance during the peak season? In the face of such unexpected and reasonable peak season, what do textile people think?

It’s just one word, I heard it many times recently

After the National Day holiday, the most intuitive feeling of textile people is that everything seems to have started to increase in price.

From the table below, we can clearly see that after October, the prices of various raw materials have risen across the board, and the prices of spandex and cotton yarn have even increased by more than 200 yuan/ton.

Driven by the raw materials, the price of grey fabrics has also started to rise, but except for some hot-selling varieties, the increase in woven fabrics is generally 0.1-0.2 yuan/meter, which can basically offset the increase in raw material prices.

In addition to raw materials and grey fabrics, dyeing fees are also rising, but overall the increase is not large. Some dyeing factories have not increased dyeing fees, and dyeing factories that have increased prices are basically ranging from 0.1 yuan/m to 0.3 yuan/m . Mr. Wang, the person in charge of a large printing and dyeing company, explained that the market has just recovered, so now it is still focused on protecting customers, and it is not acceptable for customers to increase too much at once.

On the other hand, due to the recent popularity of dyeing factories, the "expedited orders" that once appeared only when the market is particularly good have "returned to the world".

Manager Xu, the person in charge of a foreign trade company, said that he recently received a lot of orders, but when it came to the printing and dyeing step, he started to have a headache. Many dyeing factories have gone out of stock and there is no time to do it. The delivery time is now 15-30 days, and the pressure card is 10 Days, and the dyeing fee has also risen. Some orders will be quickened, but the speed will increase by 0.2 yuan/meter, and the express will increase by 0.6 yuan/meter.

Because the orders are so busy, most textile companies have a National Day holiday within 3 days, and some companies with urgent orders even cancelled the National Day holiday, which I did not expect before the survey.

Such a hot market is also reflected in the macro data.

Regarding the operating rate of looms, the operating rate of looms has risen to 8-9% at this stage, which is about 10% higher than before the National Day holiday, and has basically reached the normal level of the same period in previous years.

In terms of polyester production and sales, after the National Day holiday, the average production and sales of polyester filament yarns in polyester factories have exceeded one hundred for the first time this year, and weaving companies have begun to concentrate on replenishment.

In terms of polyester inventory, according to the statistics of China Silk Capital.com, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated in 26-39 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is 10-14 days, and FDY inventory is around 20-39 days. , And DTY inventory is around 28-39 days.

Domestic trade develops strength, foreign orders return, and the textile market welcomes the "highlight moment"

Textile is a very cyclical industry, and its market is obviously affected by the weather.

Even in the first half of the epidemic, at the beginning of May, there was still a hot spring and summer fabric stocking season. Recently, as the weather gradually turns cold, stocking of autumn and winter fabrics is imminent.

In addition, with the rise of the e-commerce economy, the concepts of "Double Eleven" and "Double Twelve" have gradually become a hot spot in the market, and this is partly reflected in orders.

Mr. Zhang, the person in charge of a weaving company that produces stretch fabrics, said that since October, the factory has sold more than 100,000 meters of cloth, many of which are orders for "Double Eleven". The market is getting better and better every day. The quantity of goods has been tens of thousands of meters, and the main products are T800.

In addition, there are reasons for the return of foreign trade orders.

Before the National Day holiday, there was market news that since September, many export-oriented textile companies in India could not guarantee normal delivery due to the epidemic, and a large number of orders have flown back to China.

CCTV News reported on October 14 that when the relevant person in charge of the Foreign Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce answered relevant questions, it was a normal market for multinational companies to adjust order production globally and international buyers to select suppliers based on production capacity. behavior.

In fact, not only India, but also Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines have also been greatly affected by the epidemic. Some orders have also flowed from these countries to China. This kind of return of orders is also clearly reflected in the order.

Trader Mr. Xu said that compared with September, the number of orders has increased a lot. Now there are orders for 100,000 meters of cotton cloth, and orders for 200,000 meters of recycled pongee and recycled peach skin, all through foreign trade. The company exports to the United States.

Hidden dangers in peak seasons, the cloth boss seeks stable operation

The first true peak season of 2020 is certainly worthy of joy, but for textile people, the hidden dangers behind the hot market are worthy of alert.

First, there is the issue of two levels of differentiation. At present, the hot-selling fabric varieties on the market are concentrated in the categories that can be used in the production of autumn and winter fabrics, such as elasticity, imitation memory, nylon spinning, high F pongee, etc., which have very strong seasonality. The market for too thick fabrics has not improved significantly at this stage.

Second, there is the issue of foreign trade demand. Recently, the global new crown epidemic has rebounded. The number of confirmed cases in the United States has exceeded 8 million, and the number of confirmed cases in Europe has even surpassed that of the United States. Some countries and regions have adopted strict lockdown measures, which greatly affected market demand.

Finally, there is the issue of order volume. Although the market at this stage has improved greatly compared with the first half of the year, from the survey results, most of the cloth bosses said that the current number of orders has not returned to the level of the same period of the previous year, and most of them have recovered to the 70-80% of the previous year However, it rarely recovered to about 50% of the previous year's. Such an order recovery situation cannot fully compensate for the "blood loss" caused by the epidemic in the first half of the year.

However, it is precisely because of the existence of so many hidden dangers that, when the market is booming, most weaving companies still adopt cautious operations, which can be seen from the purchase of raw materials.

Manager Lei, the head of a weaving company specializing in the production of yarn-dyed and memory-like fabrics, said that even if the price of raw materials has risen, there is no stocking, because the rise and fall of raw materials this year is too normal, so even if it rises now, I still feel that it will not It has improved a lot, and it is unlikely that it will continue to rise in the later period.

Mr. Wang, the person in charge of a large-scale weaving company that specializes in artificial silk, also said that we did not deliberately stock up more. One is that we have a large inventory of grey fabrics and occupy a lot of funds. The other reason is that we are not optimistic about the market outlook. The market is crazy recently. The big reason is the speculation in the market. This market comes and goes quickly. After the price of raw materials rises, it may fall again. There is no need to stock up on high-priced raw materials.

It can be seen that after experiencing the "magic" 2020, in the face of a sudden "peak season", textile companies have begun to "seek stability" in all aspects of operation, and they have also become more rational.